ADM...whats your best guess?

[takemorepills]

Seems we all are agreeing on approximately the same range of ADM.

I think 10k will be the least ADM we'll see.

I also think the entire production run of Z's will be plagued by production issues stemming from some country in the supply chain handling pandemic issues differently than others. Politics of involved countries being more important than whether or not a pandemic is actually occuring.

Anyone thinking production will return to normal in the next few years is smoking something. I also don't think the new Z will span as many years as the 370Z did. They'll run into death by regulations within 5-6 years, and I don't believe the pandemic will have lost influence on all supply chains.

I also think Nissan will prioritize Rogues, Pathfinder and Ariya over the Z if it comes to it.

I'd love to be proven wrong. Don't forget, 2 years ago was "2 weeks"!

Oh yeah, I'm lots of fun at parties!

 

[LeatherWings]

I'd love to be proven wrong. Don't forget, 2 years ago was "2 weeks"!

2 weeks! 2 weeks!

 

[fliplover]

A source who works in marketing at Nissan USA told me to plan on paying a 10k ‘premium’ at least until late summer. After that, they’re expecting the cars to list closer to MSRP.

As I’ve mentioned before, I’ll wait until ADM has gone bye bye.

 

[fliplover]

Can we all make a gentlemen's agreement to refuse to pay any ADM?

They can't overcharge us if we don't let them!

The unfortunate reality is there are only about 1000 members on this forum, including many from countries that don’t have to deal, with ADM bulls—t. Even if every member took that pledge and held to it, there are still thousands out there that will pay ADM, at least until the supply and demand even out.

 

[therumblewagon]

Eh, I don't think it warrants worrying about until we need to worry about it. For all we know, Nissan could manufacturer enough units to meet demand and eliminate the possibility of it happening. Until then, it's simply speculation and ways to get people worked up.

Comparing it to C8's and Broncos is silly as well (both of which have been major focal points of dealer antics)—the former has an entirely different target audience, not to mention it's a complete redesign from the C7, and the Bronco was a massive butt fumble by Ford, both in gauging demand as well as post-production issues. Also a completely new redesign. Also a MUCH bigger audience.

The twins don't seem to be suffering from markup, GTI/R's look like they're at MSRP, and I'd say those are much more comparable realities.

The average markup will likely be $7k-$10k. Probably $15k for the Proto Edition because it's "limited". I have a feeling this is why Nissan isn't doing the same reservations system for the US as they are for Canada. What would happen is people will reserve a car and then when the dealerships get the cars they'll mark them up beyond what most people can or want to pay, then majority of people will cancel their reservations and they'll have a bunch of cars sitting on the lot.

You may be onto something with your second point, and it makes me think Nissan WILL do something to keep things in check. As it's been pointed out here in the past, they're not doing too hot, and are hoping this car will be a step in the right direction to help them get back on course again. Why else would they be advertising the heck out of it? Spending millions to feature it in a Super Bowl commercial? If dealers go wild and mark it up to heck and back, that's not going to benefit the mothership.

This won't happen with Nissan, will see...

https://www.thedrive.com/news/44172/ford-boss-puts-the-kibosh-on-unreasonable-dealer-markups

"Ford isn’t alone in its watchdog approach; the Detroit Free Press reported that General Motors is also cracking down on markups. Between the chip shortage, supply chain disruptions, and overall imbalance due to the events of the past two years, automakers are keeping a close watch on how customers are reacting.

Negative press in the form of dealerships overeager to make a buck is going to be scrutinized. And while some say dealerships have the right to run their businesses they way they want, they still have to play by the rules set by the manufacturer. In the current market, toeing the line for the long-term health of the brand seems to be where Farley is focused. From a consumer perspective, I'm glad to hear it."

See my point above. There is no way Nissan is not watching what's going on here and taking notes. I do not know enough about the auto industry to say if Ford and GM are major competitors of Nissan or not, but from a brand-agnostic perspective, both have had major turnarounds over the last decade and change so I'd imagine mirroring their successes while adding in your own unique characteristics HAS to be something being considered.

 

[takemorepills]

ADM isn't the problem.

The problem is that enough cars can't be made.

Those of you who don't like ADM, consider what happens in Australia or Canada. You want to buy a new Z, but there's only a few Z's coming to your country. And they all pre-sold in less than 2 days. And you "missed the boat". Ok, great. No ADM, and still no Z. How does no ADM help you? You think you'd have better luck being first in line? Either you go by luck or willingness to cough up money.

At least here, if you're desperate enough to burn thousands of dollars, you can get a Z.
For example, let's say you are a Z enthusiast, but always have health issues and would like to get a Z before you die. And money doesn't matter anymore. Boom, in USA you can do it.

ADM sucks, and dealers suck. But everything that's wrong these days can be tracked back to one issue, and I don't see people getting mad about the root cause of our current situation.

It'd be nice if Nissan did us a solid and prioritized making enough Z's for everyone, so there's no waiting lists in Australia or Canada and no ADMs in USA. I doubt Nissan will pivot their limited resources to making us happy.

 

[therumblewagon]

I don't think it's necessarily fair to benchmark against our global counterparts, given we don't know what their allotment was for the first go, how many waves will follow, etc. It could have been 1,000 or 10,000. Until that information is revealed, it's once again speculation.

Re: Nissan prioritizing, they retooled an entire factory to produce this car if I'm not mistaken. If that isn't an indication of how much faith they're putting into this car, and how, given the financial investment that must have been, they're going to do everything within their power to meet demand, I'm not sure what is. Like I said earlier, there is also the aggressive marketing/advertising push. They'd look like clowns if they broadcasted it THIS HARD only for it to not be available.

Not defending the way they've handled things to this point at all, mind you—the "reservation" process has been nothing short of embarrassing, but for all we know this first wave could be followed by another at some point in the near future. Believe I read a few people saying that delivery times went from summer to spring on their reservations, too. That's promising. Perhaps this initial wave was to help gauge demand?

Finally, not disagreeing at all with you re: supply chain & manufacturing issues, but I've read a few stories lately of things (chips, ports, etc.) showing some improvement. Not saying it's going to be fixed overnight, but being mad about it isn't going to alleviate the problem. We'll manage best we can, same as I assume Nissan (and other manufacturers) are. We're dealing with a once in a century pandemic, after all, and I'm hoping that this has exposed a lot of weaknesses in current infrastructure that'll be addressed so it doesn't happen again. Foolishly optimistic? Perhaps. But again, we'll see.

 

[Andaesthetics]

Eh, I don't think it warrants worrying about until we need to worry about it. For all we know, Nissan could manufacturer enough units to meet demand and eliminate the possibility of it happening. Until then, it's simply speculation and ways to get people worked up.

There for sure will be a shortage of Zs the first round, if not first two rounds of deliveries. Possibly the whole first year. There will be a limited supply coming to the US the first few delivery rounds and even fewer allocated to Canada and Australia just simply because they don't sell as many Zs in those countries. There is no way, especially with the shortage and pandemic, that they will be able to produce enough supply for the initial demand. And quite frankly that would be the best case scenario because that means it's a great car. If dealers can't keep them on the lot Nissan will allocate more resources to increase produce of the Z, which in turn increases supply, which would hopefully ease demand, and then once demand slows down ADM will lessen.

Something we need to realize though, is that sports cars are not a priority for any mass producing auto manufacturer. Sports cars are in the minority of sales, especially for Nissan. Sure they made a Super Bowl ad, but it's mainly because they want to do everything they can to ensure a return on the money they have invested into producing the new Z. The 370Zs sales were absolutely abysmal the last several years and the GTRs is even worse. Ask yourself this, how often and how many 370Zs have you seen in the last year? I can probably count with 2 hands how many I've seen. If they didn't market the new Z like this, odds are it wouldn't sell as well and it would dig them a deeper financial hole.

Will the Z be worth the price point it comes in at? I'm confident it will. Will it be worth paying ADM? Personally, I very much doubt it, but if you have the means and the desire to be one of the first to have the car go for it. We shall see in the coming 6 months.

 

[trackratZ]

I'll just do the easy route, get the Z at BringaTrailer, guaranteed at least one will be there soon, $$$$$$ ready! ?

 

[takemorepills]

Nissan made a Super bowl ad not because they are signalling to us "don't worry, we'll build enough", no, they are using the time tested "halo car" approach to stoke interest in Rogues. Makes the brand seem more exciting.
And worse off, especially if the Z ends up being higher demand than can be manufactured, that'll play even more into the aura of the halo car.

 

[golddog]

I may be jumping ship over to a 2022 BMW 240i. Dealer locked me in at $1,000 off MSRP if I come into the dealership to place the order.

 

[takemorepills]

I may be jumping ship over to a 2022 BMW 240i. Dealer locked me in at $1,000 off MSRP if I come into the dealership to place the order.

Isn't that car built in some weird central European country, instead of Germany?

I heard BMW fans bitching about some new BMW being made in some weird country.

As a former 2016 GTI owner, we noticed our Mexico made GTIs seemed less reliable than the more complicated and powerful German made Golf R.

 

[bybepl]

My dealer put in writing to sell AT MSRP. Problem is we don't even know what that is.

 

[golddog]

Yep, M240i made in Mexico. I had people rag me for buying an Alfa Romeo, my current daily, due to reliability. It has been flawless. If it has an issue, I get it fixed. If it becomes a pain in the a**, I get rid of it.

 

[Tdog87]

ADM isn't the problem.

The problem is that enough cars can't be made.

Those of you who don't like ADM, consider what happens in Australia or Canada. You want to buy a new Z, but there's only a few Z's coming to your country. And they all pre-sold in less than 2 days. And you "missed the boat". Ok, great. No ADM, and still no Z. How does no ADM help you? You think you'd have better luck being first in line? Either you go by luck or willingness to cough up money.

At least here, if you're desperate enough to burn thousands of dollars, you can get a Z.
For example, let's say you are a Z enthusiast, but always have health issues and would like to get a Z before you die. And money doesn't matter anymore. Boom, in USA you can do it.

As already said it is hard to compare different markets but here in Australia official registrations have been open for months and you can still register for a vehicle. While that may not necessarily mean that there is or isn't stock available you can still register and eventually get a car.

All we know so far with the allocation for Australia is that all Proto Spec's destined for our market have been spoken for as of a couple of weeks ago and the only way to get one of those now is if someone cancels there order and you are next in line on the wait list. The regular version are still taking orders.

However to use your analogy of someone really wanting the car and was willing to pay a high ADM to get one over someone else wouldn't that most likely be an enthusiast?

So if they were an enthusiast really wanting one you would assume that they would try and put their name do for an order as soon as reservations go live.

Here in Australia what usually happens when a car is in very high demand is that there will always be someone who bought the car and realizes that they can sell the car for more than what they pay for it so in a way that is our form of ADM, but instead it is the buyer selling that gets the profit rather than the dealer.

A perfect example of this was when the Toyota Yaris GR first went on sale in Australia and there were only 1000 vehicles available for the first batch. On top of this the first 1000 vehicles were being sold for a cheaper introductory price of $40k AUD driveaway and than after the first 1000 were sold the price was to go up by over $10k. As there was such demand for it people were selling them for $55-$60k on the used market. So there is always a way for someone to get one if the really want it without the need for an ADM.