Car & Driver - Feds Taking a Harder Stance on Chip Shortage, May Suspect Hoarding

TitanZ

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takemorepills

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Mark my words.
Be prepared for a minimum of 3 years of continuing issues.

I also wish the media/pundits would not just simply call it "chip shortage". It's a supply issue for nearly every component, and most of it can be traced back to China's "zero COVID" policy of completely locking down a major international shipping port, and causing shipping resources to be stuck in China..... even items that are not made in China can't find cargo containers and ships to move it because a significant portion of the global shipping industry is stuck in transit in China, particularly Shanghai....

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...-impact-of-lockdown-on-supply-chains-12593848
 

Raven1

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Mark my words.
Be prepared for a minimum of 3 years of continuing issues.

I also wish the media/pundits would not just simply call it "chip shortage". It's a supply issue for nearly every component, and most of it can be traced back to China's "zero COVID" policy of completely locking down a major international shipping port, and causing shipping resources to be stuck in China..... even items that are not made in China can't find cargo containers and ships to move it because a significant portion of the global shipping industry is stuck in transit in China, particularly Shanghai....

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...-impact-of-lockdown-on-supply-chains-12593848
findlaymarks-scotty.gif
 

TitanZ

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3 years could be optimistic, I almost feel like OEM's & dealers will never relinquish the leverage they have over the consumer now, they're making too much money per vehicle to ever go back, regardless of global supply levels. They've reset the playing field so demand can never be satisfied and conditioned consumers to believe MSRP is a smokin' good deal.

Last week European & Asian car makers cut their production by 25,000 units & 23,000 units respectively so as not to build up a glut of inventory.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/is-the-end-of-the-chip-shortage-in-sight/

 

takemorepills

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3 years could be optimistic, I almost feel like OEM's & dealers will never relinquish the leverage they have over the consumer now, they're making too much money per vehicle to ever go back, regardless of global supply levels. They've reset the playing field so demand can never be satisfied and conditioned consumers to believe MSRP is a smokin' good deal.

Last week European & Asian car makers cut their production by 25,000 units & 23,000 units respectively so as not to build up a glut of inventory.

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/is-the-end-of-the-chip-shortage-in-sight/

I agree.
No way things go back to "normal" in less than 3years. I just say 3 because it's a safe bet.
My guy feeling is 5+.
I've given up on getting a Z, I'm focusing on being happy with what I've got.
 

trackratZ

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I agree.
No way things go back to "normal" in less than 3years. I just say 3 because it's a safe bet.
My guy feeling is 5+.
I've given up on getting a Z, I'm focusing on being happy with what I've got.
More likely scenario, 3-4 yrs I'd say. Giving up on the Z, instead going ahead with next step upgrades to the RB26DETT for 400whp goal - single turbo, EM (Haltech), injectors, etc etc. - since no yearly smog inspections anyway for the 240Z.

Aiming for Nismo Z if it ever materializes in about 5 years.
 

TitanZ

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I agree.
No way things go back to "normal" in less than 3years. I just say 3 because it's a safe bet.
My guy feeling is 5+.
I've given up on getting a Z, I'm focusing on being happy with what I've got.
Yeah I think this is definitely the sensible thing to do is to be happy with what we have and just hold on tight until the dust settles in a few years. I might just put a Stillen exhaust on my Titan and be happy with that until a more stable time in the future to spend on a toy car.
 

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I'm Giving Up My Saturday to Make Sure The People Get More Chips.

Going Brightside, seems as though some of us might be able to swoop up a 'Gently Used Zee' on PPLs who will be defaulting on loans ? ! ? ! ?

Last-Action-Hero-To-Be.gif

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schwarzenegger-arnold.gif
 

takemorepills

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I'm Giving Up My Saturday to Make Sure The People Get More Chips.

Going Brightside, seems as though some of us might be able to swoop up a 'Gently Used Zee' on PPLs who will be defaulting on loans ? ! ? ! ?

Last-Action-Hero-To-Be.gif

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schwarzenegger-arnold.gif
I dunno about scoring a good deal on a used Z, in my area I can't find any 370Z, no matter how old or janky, for under $20k.

However, some *possibly* good news, there's a ton of order cancellations for chips from other industries. Likely due to the unfolding recession, and those industries are beginning to reach normal inventory levels.
Don't know if the chips that are being cancelled are the same process as automotive chips, which are generally using the older processes, but it could mean freed up capacity for vehicle manufacturing.
However, we still have a bunch of other commodity, shipping and labor shortages to deal with

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/trendforce-report-chip-foundries-face-cancellations
 

Raven1

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I dunno about scoring a good deal on a used Z, in my area I can't find any 370Z, no matter how old or janky, for under $20k.

However, some *possibly* good news, there's a ton of order cancellations for chips from other industries. Likely due to the unfolding recession, and those industries are beginning to reach normal inventory levels.
Don't know if the chips that are being cancelled are the same process as automotive chips, which are generally using the older processes, but it could mean freed up capacity for vehicle manufacturing.
However, we still have a bunch of other commodity, shipping and labor shortages to deal with

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/trendforce-report-chip-foundries-face-cancellations
From the quoted article the chips being canceled are not going to affect our New Zee. PMIC is the chip in mobile devices that handle how the device uses power. In order to keep up with demand, device makers are sticking with what the tech & stock on and hand to keep rolling out their products. Basically the new hotness cell phone this cycle will still be using the same power management but that's ok as your phone (depending if you're a power user or not) will still sip the juice. CIS is the image sensor on your device camera, same here, manufacturers will stick with the current tech this product cycle roll out. SoC is the new hotness like Apple is doing with their M Series chips that kinda do it all. But companies like them have made deals with foundries to make their chips so they can keep strict quality control on the end product.

So only affecting mobile devices and cell phones.

Been so busy this week and haven't been on the board but the installations are ramping up industry wide (which is why I'm out of country) and have even more just after the new year stateside with new Fabs coming online. On the manufacturing side, production is at an all time high and trending upward.

I'm currently in a country where it isn't common to work the weekends and here we are moving in capitol equipment on the weekend to set up for Monday's work schedule. Morning 7AM FT call from the wife as we chat while I brush my teeth, I have time to eat breakfast right before I jump the taxi to the office, roll into the fab mid morning, work through lunch and roll out for lunch around 4:30. The it's either right back in or head back to the office to set up for the next day. Dinner is a beer, a quick workout and another FT call with the wife from bed right before midnight. Rinse and repeat as this is life until I roll back to home right before Christmas (That's right, gonna miss my anniversary, Halloween and Thanksgiving at home) All to get ready for the ramp that will be happening after the new year.

The shit I do so we can have all of our nice (cars, cell phones, mobile devices, Flat panel TVs, wearables, game consoles) toys and at an affordable price. Good thing I love my job and have an understanding wife . . .
 
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takemorepills

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From the quoted article the chips being canceled are not going to affect our New Zee. PMIC is the chip in mobile devices that handle how the device uses power. In order to keep up with demand, device makers are sticking with what the tech & stock on and hand to keep rolling out their products. Basically the new hotness cell phone this cycle will still be using the same power management but that's ok as your phone (depending if you're a power user or not) will still sip the juice. CIS is the image sensor on your device camera, same here, manufacturers will stick with the current tech this product cycle roll out. SoC is the new hotness like Apple is doing with their M Series chips that kinda do it all. But companies like them have made deals with foundries to make their chips so they can keep strict quality control on the end product.

So only affecting mobile devices and cell phones.

Been so busy this week and haven't been on the board but the installations are ramping up industry wide (which is why I'm out of country) and have even more just after the new year stateside with new Fabs coming online. On the manufacturing side, production is at an all time high and trending upward.

I'm currently in a country where it isn't common to work the weekends and here we are moving in capitol equipment on the weekend to set up for Monday's work schedule. Morning 7AM FT call from the wife as we chat while I brush my teeth, I have time to eat breakfast right before I jump the taxi to the office, roll into the fab mid morning, work through lunch and roll out for lunch around 4:30. The it's either right back in or head back to the office to set up for the next day. Dinner is a beer, a quick workout and another FT call with the wife from bed right before midnight. Rinse and repeat as this is life until I roll back to home right before Christmas (That's right, gonna miss my anniversary, Halloween and Thanksgiving at home) All to get ready for the ramp that will be happening after the new year.

The shit I do so we can have all of our nice (cars, cell phones, mobile devices, Flat panel TVs, wearables, game consoles) toys and at an affordable price. Good thing I love my job and have an understanding wife . . .
Are you in the semiconductor industry? I used to be. AMAT guy here.

I know that most automotive chips are on larger, legacy topologies. Even the most advanced devices we buy have some of these older devices in them (well, except smartphones, everything is on the smallest scale practical) so, hopefully there will be some capacity opened up.

I read somewhere that most automotive stuff is still on the 28-40nm scale, and there's not much interest in opening up more capacity in this scale. However, the legacy devices are cheap and reliable.
There's a need to transfer legacy products to scales that still attract investment....just no one seems interested in engineering proven devices onto smaller processes.

I still think more chips won't help the vehicle supply issues, as it's not just the chips holding things up.....
 

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Are you in the semiconductor industry? I used to be. AMAT guy here.

I know that most automotive chips are on larger, legacy topologies. Even the most advanced devices we buy have some of these older devices in them (well, except smartphones, everything is on the smallest scale practical) so, hopefully there will be some capacity opened up.

I read somewhere that most automotive stuff is still on the 28-40nm scale, and there's not much interest in opening up more capacity in this scale. However, the legacy devices are cheap and reliable.
There's a need to transfer legacy products to scales that still attract investment....just no one seems interested in engineering proven devices onto smaller processes.

I still think more chips won't help the vehicle supply issues, as it's not just the chips holding things up.....
Yep, in Semi, it's a small world, Brand X is a great company and have many good friends there!

True that, chips used in auto industry is the older tech is still the most reliable for production protocols, but you know that!

There's no money in transferring the legacy tech onto the smaller nm scales as devices are all integrating (SoC type processors and Memory) yet still getting smaller and packing in even more (transistor) switches with the newer DeD process.

More chips won't help, what we need is more capacity and more skilled workers in the work force. You should come back into this crazy game and help kick out more chips mang - We Hurting over here !!!
 

takemorepills

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Yep, in Semi, it's a small world, Brand X is a great company and have many good friends there!

True that, chips used in auto industry is the older tech is still the most reliable for production protocols, but you know that!

There's no money in transferring the legacy tech onto the smaller nm scales as devices are all integrating (SoC type processors and Memory) yet still getting smaller and packing in even more (transistor) switches with the newer DeD process.

More chips won't help, what we need is more capacity and more skilled workers in the work force. You should come back into this crazy game and help kick out more chips mang - We Hurting over here !!!
I really want to move back to AZ and work in one of the fabs there.

I travelled too much, doing installs, startups and quals. I lived in China for several years. I'd like to work in a domestic fab environment if the pay is ok.

I reckon the pay will be less, seems all the money is in startups and contract maintenance.

Current job has me out in the elements, sun, rain, sociopathic bums... the air conditioned fab life beckons.....
 
 





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